Evidence before ranking
A score without evidence is only a placeholder. Records must show source strength, uncertainty and correction route.
A practical explanation of how PASO turns public evidence into cautious, correctable records for sovereignty, protection and accountability.
A score without evidence is only a placeholder. Records must show source strength, uncertainty and correction route.
An actor can contribute useful capacity and still create capture risk. PASO avoids false binaries.
Public pages flag risk, evidence, uncertainty and action thresholds. Legal guilt belongs to competent procedures.
Pressure does not change a score. Public evidence, correction, audit and reviewer approval do.
Measures: Recurring external pressure patterns affecting African safety, security, resources, institutions, information, data, health and future capability.
How to read: High risk means repeated pressure mechanisms require scrutiny; low trust means public assurances are insufficient.
Example: A foreign state may score high when military agreements, monetary dependence, resource pressure and narrative shaping converge.
military/security pressureeconomic/resource pressureinformation/psychological pressurehealth/biosecurity pressurelegal/diplomatic pressurecivilian protection impactevidence integrity
Measures: Public capability, trajectory and resilience without confusing state performance with popular reserve.
How to read: A state can have strong popular/community capabilities but weak state score if the administration fails to finance or protect them.
Example: Popular institutions can be recognized as reserve capacity while excluded from state score when the state does not mobilize them.
final scoreevidencetrajectoryresiliencepopular reserve
Measures: Civilizational contribution, field definition, useful output, transferability, innovation, epistemic contribution and auditability rather than prestige alone.
How to read: Funding and brand do not automatically inflate the score; useful sovereign capability carries more weight.
Example: A smaller institution may score high when it builds methods, archives, tools and local transfer.
ATSSsovereigntyimpactinnovationepistemic contributionopen knowledgeaudit/evidence
Measures: Constructive contribution, role, evidence level and capture risk. Contribution and risk remain separate.
How to read: High contribution does not erase risk; high risk does not erase useful output. The evidence profile explains why.
Example: A public figure can be a capacity builder in one domain and require caution in another.
contributioncapture riskevidence strengthrolesource needs
Measures: Proxy violence, surveillance, resource coercion, military footprint, media laundering, institutional capture and population-protection risks.
How to read: Threat profiles are warning hypotheses for protection and investigation, not enemy lists.
Example: A foreign military footprint can be rated on risk even before guilt is proven, if safeguards are absent and abuse patterns are foreseeable.
riskevidencetrusttagsactionscorrection pathway
Measures: Public-information usefulness, ownership/funding transparency, source density, correction discipline, narrative-capture risk and editorial geography.
How to read: A media outlet is not simply trusted or distrusted; each topic and framing can be audited.
Example: A global outlet can provide useful evidence while still requiring colonial/framing asymmetry review.
evidence strengthtrust indexcorrection disciplineAfrican source densitynarrative capture risk
Measures: Whether public decisions compromise non-delegable duties: life, liberty, justice, territory, biological security, resources, foreign forces and constitutional order.
How to read: The test asks whether a pattern reaches inquiry, preservation, review or responsibility thresholds; it does not skip due process.
Example: A court filing can ask whether government conduct is constitutionally compatible before asking for personal removal.
severitypublic evidenceactionabilityprotected evidence dependencylegal forum
Measures: Beneficial ownership, offtake, smuggling, community remedy, resource-for-security, tax leakage and local capability transfer.
How to read: Red means public assurance is not demonstrated; right of reply and contract transparency can improve trust.
Example: A concession can be high-risk if clauses are opaque even before a court finds corruption.
riskevidencetrustcommunity remedyownership clarityvalue retention